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Click here to download the full report : RFP Investment Committee January 2013
RFP INVESTMENT COMMITTEE
THE END OF A RALLY?
The American economy is showing very confusing indicators. Sometimes good, sometimes bad, they suggest an improvement of the real estate sector and a steady industrial output for the coming months. Though, consumer confidence is declining sharply and the fiscal cliff issue has been postponed to March and remains unsolved. There are more and more worries about the U.S. debt and the safety of the U.S. Dollar in the long run. As a consequence, the strength of world growth in 2013 is questionable.
Nearly all the stock markets have rallied since the beginning of the year and our targets have all been reached. U.S. stocks are near all-time highs, while the economy is not expected to truly boom in the coming months. Thus, we expect a consolidation of the stock markets.
Bond yields are already very low, short term rates are near zero and spreads have a very limited potential of tightening, while governments and companies are evolving in a very difficult context. Thus, we do not consider this asset class as interesting for now.
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The Euro continues to recover against the other currencies. We think that the tensions over the European currency should continue to release in the coming weeks while the U.S. deficit and debt issues will reappear in the news.
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|COMMODITIES||Oil should consolidate after its rally. It is near an important resistance line and the macroeconomic news should not help it appreciate further. Gold could be a safe haven for the coming weeks.|| ||Last||Opinion|
The purpose of this report is to present you with an opinion which is as clear as possible about the present situation on the financial markets. The information presented in this report is provided to you for information purposes only and is not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Information and opinions presented in this report have been obtained or derived from sources believed by RFP to be reliable, but RFP makes no representation as to their accuracy or completeness. RFP accepts no liability for loss arising from the use of the material presented in this report.