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Summary:

Despite the Greek crisis, the climate of the global economy seems to be improving. Actually, tensions over European debt are easing (Greece is now almost an isolated case) and investors were positively surprised by the earnings season in the United States and by several macroeconomic data from the U.S. (labor market, advanced indicators) and Japan. As stock markets in Europe and emerging countries suffered a lot in 2011, one can expect the rebound of the beginning of this year to continue during the next two months.

But don't get us wrong: the present monetary policies led by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England do not create the roots for a durable growth in their own countries. We still compare “quantitative easing” to money printing (or Ponzi scheme), and we are still convinced that these countries will have to face debt or inflation problems in the future. The Eurozone chose – or was imposed to chose - another path: austerity, coupled with a less offensive monetary policy, to preserve a moderate inflation rate. To us, growth will be far less dynamic in Europe than everywhere else this year, but the Eurozone can come out stronger from this crisis in a longer run.